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Analysis Of Agricultural Production In Albania: Prospects For Policy Improvement
E.X.Zaloshnja
Virginia,
1997
Aннотация:
The overall objective of this study is to develop a framework to predict the impacts
of government policies on agricultural production in Albania. The specific goal of
this study is to provide some empirical estimates of the farmers' short-run supply
response to government policies that effect output and input prices. Different theoretical
approaches to integrating the questions this study purports to answer were considered.
Two models were deemed as most appropriate for Albanian agriculture. The first is
a semi-commercial farm household model and the second is the well-known indirect
profit function model. The first model was preferred. However, the second was used
instead, due to the lack of information necessary for an empirical application of
the semi-commercial farm household model. A quadratic functional form was selected
to approximate the profit function. It satisfied the Taylor series approximation
convergence test. Two approaches were used to estimate the empirical model. In the
first, the traditional approach, the symmetry and homogeneity conditions were imposed
beforehand and then the system of equations was estimated using the ITSUR procedure
in SAS. Following common practice, a joint Rao test of these conditions was conducted,
implicitly assuming that the test statistic has a Fisher distribution or, stated
differently, assuming that parameter estimators are normally distributed. The test
results indicate that the conditions are met. A second approach, proposed by McGuirk,
et al., was also used in this study. The approach proposed by McGuirk, et al., requires
that, before imposing and/or testing any theoretical assumption, the unrestricted
model is estimated and tested to see if all the underlying statistical assumptions
of the linear regression are met. The misspecification tests suggested that the model
is not statistically adequate. This finding indicated that the theoretical test conducted
in the traditional approach was invalid. An alternative estimation procedure is proposed
in the study for cases when a statistically adequate model cannot be specified. Named
the sub-sample or the bootstrapping method, this procedure consists of randomly selecting
a large number of sub-samples from the cross-sectional sample and running a regression
for each of them. The large number of estimates for each of the coefficients serves
as a basis for estimating 95-percent confidence intervals. An inspection of the supply
and input demand elasticities calculated based on coefficients estimated through
the sub-sample method revealed that half of them have wide 95 percent confidence
intervals. Therefore, predicting policy impacts across all output and input equations
is not possible. However, elasticities that have narrow confidence intervals and
make economic sense can be used to predict isolated policy impacts, if Albania returns
to the conditions that prevailed before the political turmoil of 1997.
См. также:
-
С.М.Пшихачев.
Парадигма устойчивого развития аграрной сферы
// Экономический вестник Ростовского государственного университета.
2005.
Т. 3.
№ 1.
С. 114-127.
[Статья]
-
Р.И.Капелюшников, Н.В.Демина.
Обновление высшего менеджмента российских промышленных предприятий: интенсивность,
каналы пополнения, основные определяющие факторы
// Препринты Высшей школы экономики.
2005.
№ 04.
[Статья]
-
В.В.Бочаров, А.И.Рябикин.
Обычное право в российском политическом дискурсе в периоды реформирования отношений
собственности на землю
// Журнал социологии и социальной антропологии.
2005.
Т. 8.
№ 1.
С. 149-170.
[Статья]
-
А.А.Никонова.
Взгляды на аграрный вопрос в двадцатые годы
// Социологический журнал.
1994.
№ 3.
С. 66-79.
[Статья]
-
Л.В.Бабаева, Ш.Л.Холт, М.П.Козлов, Г.П.Лапина, Л.А.Резниченко, Е.Я.Таршис.
Аграрная реформа в России и положение женщин и пенсионеров
[Книга]
-
Д.Н.Емельянов, А.М.Носов, А.В.Дерюгина, В.Г.Растянников, А.А.Барлыбаев, Н.М.Клопыжникова.
Проблемы перехода России к рыночной экономике
[Книга]
-
Н.А.Карлова, И.Кобута, М.Прокопьев, Е.В.Серова, И.Г.Храмова, О.В.Шик.
Агропродовольственная политика и международная торговля: российский аспект (Научные
труды ИЭПП № 37)
[Книга]
Все публикации на ту же тему>>
Публикации с ключевыми словами: аграрная экономика - агропродовольственная политика - эконометрический метод - предложение сельхозпродукции - производство сельхозпродукции
Публикации со словами в тексте: аграрная экономика - агропродовольственная политика - эконометрический метод - предложение сельхозпродукции - производство сельхозпродукции
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